After having faced humiliating whitewashes at the hands of lowly Bangladesh and a grade C India line up, New Zealand will be aiming to turn the tables come 19th Feb.
The most amazing part of playing in the subcontinent in the months of Feb, March and April is that the pitches would be conducive to hit through the line and even batsmen with mediocre technique would look like a million dollar. Hence, players who would struggle in seaming and bouncy conditions say in Newzealand, England or South Africa would end up making loads of runs when they come down to places like India and Bangladesh. This is the reason why I believe Newzealand may still have a slim hope of producing outstanding results in the coming world cup, because otherwise, the side looks devoid of firepower in bowling as well as batting.
Having said that, kiwis have always had a team with no big players in it, barring Richard Headlee, so anyone counting them out can do at his/her peril. But a lack of genuine all-rounder, someone like a Chris Cairns or Chris Harris (remember that 131 against Aus in 1996 WC), could mean that there long tail be exposed against the spin and guile of Murali, Mendis and Harbhajan.
Off course they have in Jacob Oram, a hard hitting all rounder down the order, but over the years injuries and form have taken a toal on this lanky 2metre giant. I was going through his performances in the last couple of editions of the premiere event, and that conspicuously tells me that a lot would depend on him if New Zealand have to go deep into the championships. He took 14 wickets at an average of 21.07 in the ICC CWC 2003 and then scored 165 runs at an average of 33.00 and took 10 wickets at an average of 25.20 at the ICC CWC 2007. Apart from him, the team will be more dependent on the likes of McCullum brothers, Taylor, Ryder and Vettori. Also I am impressed by the pace and aggression of Hamesh Bannett who resembles Shane Bond in more than one ways.
So where does New Zealand look weak if the side has decent batting and bowling. Well the weakness lies in the application, or lack of it shown by both, the batsmen and bowlers while playing in the sub continent. They start decently against pace on flat decks, but go in their shells even against part time spinners which puts immense pressure on the lower order to up the ante come the final straight of the innings. As is termed in athletics, the race is won and lost from the final bend onwards to the finish line and that is where kiwis are faltering. If they do not apply themselves and keep playing as if this is a T20 big bash, then the results would continue to be dismal.
Fifty overs today is a long time, a span in which you can lose early wickets and still rebuild to a sizeable total, or a period in which you can get hit for 90 in the first ten and still bowl out the opposition for a meager target. Hence John Wright, along with Vettori and company need to strategize in a manner through which, the team can play at a nice pace and yet preserve wickets for the batting power play and the final assault. I always believe when sides play in subcontinent, it is the batting which makes the difference.
Another aspect of their game which I am sure any kiwi supporter would be frustrated with, is the continuous shuffling at the top of the order. India toured down under in 2009 and the way Ryder played then, showed that he is born to open and smash from bowl one, more so on the featherbeds in the heat of Mumbai and Bangalore, than anywhere else. Yet, the team management is trying out different players at the opening slot. If Brandon McCullum is not keeping and you have Ryder in the eleven, will have no doubts in my mind to open with both of them in the world cup. Also I do not see a place for Jamie How in the side, as apart from one blistering knock against England in 2008, have not seen him either, score briskly or stay at the wicket like a Kallis or a sedate Dhoni, major part of the innings. The selectors could have looked at other batsmen for the middle order as opening would require the players to score quickly in world cup conditions.
Looking at their group, I see that they will face tough opposition with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Kenya to content with, apart from Australia. The first three sides have got top notch to decent quality spinners in their ranks and hence it would be interesting to watch the kiwis tackle all these teams. As for the match against Australia, it sounds strange but I believe Newzealand have their best chance in this one with Hauritz getting injured and no Hussey in the ausie lineup, kiwis might just topple the kangaroos.
After taking all these considerations, I believe the team is devoid of a genuine bowling all rounder and has a slightly longer tail than others. If the top 3, that is McCullum, Ryder and Taylor do not fire, I see them struggling against quality spin. Hence for me, they will do well to reach quarters, similar to the West Indies.
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